‘Shocking’ harvest was second worst since records began

• 21% drop in wheat production

• Yields tumble for other cereals

• Call for climate change action

This year’s cereal harvest was England’s second worst since records began – with some growers suffering devastating yields, government figures have confirmed.

The English wheat harvest is estimated to be 10m tonnes or 21% down on 2023, according to Defra figures.  Winter barley was 26% down on last year, and the oilseed rape harvest was down 32% – down 38% on the five-year average.

Major decline

In total, the harvest for wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape was down by 15% on 2023 and 18% on the five year average, with increases in spring barley and oat production failing to offset a major decline in the other crops.

It follows a season which will be remembered for all the wrong reasons – starting with a wet autumn, disrupting drilling ultimately reducing yield. Records have tumbled again in the recent weeks, already sparking fears of a repeat in 2025.

The Defra data broadly reflects earlier estimates by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) that the shortfall in production compared to 2023 could see farmers lose a whopping £600m in revenue on the five crops alone.

ECIU analyst Tom Lancaster said: “This year’s harvest was a shocker – and climate change is to blame. While shoppers have been partly insulated by imports picking up some of the slack, Britain’s farmers have borne the brunt.”

‘Biggest threat’

Climate change is the biggest threat to UK food security. And these impacts are only going to get worse until we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, in order to stop the warming that is driving these extremes.

Mr Lancaster said the government had an opportunity to invest in more sustainable farming that would make food security more resilient to climate change. The alternative was to allow the effects to worsen.

An analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that storm rainfall was made 20% heavier by climate change, and the volume of rainfall between October 2023 and March 2024 was made four times more likely.

For many farmers in England, drilling this autumn season has got off to an even worse start. A soggy September saw record-breaking rain across much of southern, central and eastern England – and continued into October.

Becoming unviable

Lincolnshire arable farmer Colin Chappell said: “We are now on a knife edge. We had almost two inches of rain within 36 hours here and we’re not the worst off. Some farms in southern England have lost their crops for the second year in a row.”

Many farmers would be relying on spring crops once again, said Mr Chappell. “We’re getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought. It is causing a lot of nervousness and uncertainty.

“Farmers are going to need support to see them through this and ensure they are resilient in the future. This is the time to redouble our efforts and invest in policies that boost farming’s resilience, both environmentally and financially.”

AHDB publishes

UK harvest estimates

UK wheat production for 2024 is provisionally estimated at 11.1 million tonnes – a decrease of 2.9Mt compared to 2023 harvest. This is 21% below the five-year average but above the 9.7Mt crop seen in 2020.

While the wheat crop is larger than 2020’, oilseed rape output is provisionally the lowest since 1983. Despite increases in barley and oat production from 2023, both remain below their five-year averages.

As a result, the UK will be much more reliant on imports than usual this season, says the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, which calculated the UK estimates.

Final UK production estimates for the 2024 cereal harvest are due to be published by Defra on 12 December.