Tight margins and high input costs are set to see some growers leaving winter crops undrilled this autumn.
Fertiliser prices remain stubbornly high – making growing some crops unprofitable. It comes amid NFU calls for the government to implement a Fertiliser Resilience Plan to help protect domestic food production from extreme market volatility.
The NFU plan demands immediate government action to help growers mitigate the impact of high input costs driven by the Middle East conflict which continue to pile pressure farm margins.
Urea prices reached £635/t this season. The NFU says UK farmers remain especially vulnerable, because 60% of British nitrogen fertiliser is imported – as is all ammonia required for domestic processing.
Market pressure
NFU president Tom Bradshaw said: “We can’t keep being collateral damage to global politics. We need to find ways to build fairness, transparency and support into our domestic food production system so we can continue to feed 70m people.”
The resilience plan proposes a formal compensation mechanism. If imported ammonium nitrate hits £500/t, the government should mirror EU schemes. This would allow growers to claim 70% of additional costs, up to a £50,000 limit.
The union is also lobbying to postpone the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Scheduled for 1 January, the tax could add £70/t to fertiliser prices, it says. Such inflationary pressure risks further increasing food costs for consumers.
“Fertiliser for 2027 must be affordable,” said Mr Bradshaw. “If it is not, some farmers and growers could be left facing incredibly tough decisions about whether to try to grow a crop with reduced fertiliser applications – or whether to plant at all.”
Crucial data
Transparency is another core demand. The NFU wants the AHDB to provide better data on fertiliser stocks, usage, and pricing. This would address current market failures and allow growers to make “rational decisions at the point of purchase”.
The Middle East crisis prompted the AHDB to start publishing weekly fertiliser prices earlier this year. Growers can access an AHDB fertiliser calculator so growers can see whether applying fertiliser is cost effective.
The Central Association of Agricultural Valuers has also warned that farmers may not drill crops. CAVV adviser Jeremy Moody said: “My suspicion is that not all land will be worth that gamble – some is already being withdrawn from production.”